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Posts tagged "Mike Scioscia"

Sciosciaface: A Four Act Play

(Clikc the pitchers for Soshazfais slyshow)

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“C’mon, Mai. Lemme jos toash it.” “Golly, Ferny. I don’t think that’s app-“ “Jos wee da bag oaf my hen.” “It’s just … we’re on the ball field.” “I lobe joo, Mai.” “Whelp, I think, uh …” “I’m drong.” “Yeah, that’s really inappropriate.” “I wanna kees jor faces.” “Well that’s not gonna happen either.” “Jos a liddo peck en usen da beg of mai hen I wanna toash it.” “Turn the page, Ferny. I’ve gotta game to manage and you-“ /starts singing “I Think We’re Alone Now”

“C’mon, Mai. Lemme jos toash it.”

“Golly, Ferny. I don’t think that’s app-“

“Jos wee da bag oaf my hen.”

“It’s just … we’re on the ball field.”

“I lobe joo, Mai.”

“Whelp, I think, uh …”

“I’m drong.”

“Yeah, that’s really inappropriate.”

“I wanna kees jor faces.”

“Well that’s not gonna happen either.”

“Jos a liddo peck en usen da beg of mai hen I wanna toash it.”

“Turn the page, Ferny. I’ve gotta game to manage and you-“

/starts singing “I Think We’re Alone Now”

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I Just Don’t Get It

Is there another manager on a team that has a payroll of ~$141 million, and plays in a fairly winnable division that would (by choice) would trot out a lineup that looked like this against a fairly beatable (Royals) team?

I doubt it.

Take a look at that trainwreck.

Sure there are injuries: Vernon Wells (whose contract is an absolutely unbelievable nightmare, but [sadly] his career numbers are better than what’s been placed out there in his stead) and Howie Kendrick (team leader in WAR, absolute stud, and now [apparently] a legit UT player [w/starts at 1B, 2B, LF.]) But this lineup is just garbage. Sunday lineups always seemed like they were reserved for Scioscia’s mix-n-match/bench emptying shitfests, but tonight’s mess has me a little worried.

Here’s why:

a) He wastes his DH spot on a AAAA catcher that is out of options, has no business being on a 25-man roster, barely ever plays, has 17 ABs this season, and has a career BA of .228 and a career WAR of 0.4.

That’s like getting a $100 iTunes gift certificate and buying Menudo’s entire discography.

b) Start a C (every time there’s a LHP on the bump) that is perpetually dancing around the .190 mark (and is also a career .198 hitter with a career WAR of -1.2, and uh…as a “platoon player” is hitting .156 vs. LHP, which kind of negates the whole “platoon” thing.)

It’s a poor carpenter that blames his tools, but it’s a dumb carpenter that tries to saw a 2 x 4 with his penis.

c) Start a AAAA LF (Reggie WIllits) that can’t hit (.045 BA.)

Having a batting cage in your house is cool if it helps you. It’s not so cool if you use it to practice hitting infield pop-ups and collecting backwards Ks.

d) Alberto Callaspo is your clean-up hitter.

Alberto. Callaspo.

—————————————————

I still have some hope for this team, but it’s waning. They’ve got as good a #1 and #2 as anyone (save the Phillies and Giants), but when they roll two to three players that are below replacement-level a night, it doesn’t matter who the hell you have on the hill for you. Defense and pitching win championships, but teams that can’t score runs can’t take advantage of good defense and pitching.

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Is that an “internal stat” or an “external stat”?

Is that an “internal stat” or an “external stat”?

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All you need to know: Hank Conger: good. Jeff Mathis: poor. (graph from Fangraphs) Friends Don’t Let Catchers Manage Catchers Hank Conger is a damn fine baseball player. So far in 2011, based on 73 plate appearances, he’s the 10th-best catcher in the big leagues by wOBA (that’s weighted on-base average, an awesomely handy all-inclusive hitting stat that scales to batting average). Conger is 23 and has played in a total of 33 big league games. I think it’s safe to assume that he’ll move up that list as he adjusts to major league pitching and the rigors of the game at the highest level. (Baseball players typically peak around age 29 or 30, although that number might be a bit lower for catchers, just because of the physical demands of the position.) His teammate Jeff Mathis is 28, so we should be expecting him to be at or approaching the peak of his career. Mathis has had almost the same amount of plate appearances – 75 – and is dead last among all catchers in major league baseball at a paltry .217 wOBA. Looking at players with a minimum of 70 PA this year, Mathis is the sixth-worst hitter in all of baseball. This doesn’t appear to be an outlier – his BABIP is at .250, which is in line with his career numbers, and the .217 is probably in the neighborhood of his true talent level (he posted a .223 wOBA last year in 218 PA). Yet, somehow, Mike Scioscia insists on giving him as many starts as Conger, who could be a star for years to come. Why in the wide, wide world of sports would he do that? My hunch is that former-catcher managers (of which Scioscia is one, and San Franciso’s Bruce Bochy is another) believe catchers have far more effect on the outcome of the game than they actually do. Yes, the way a catcher calls a game, frames the ball, and handles the pitcher all have an effect on the game, but it’s pretty minimal. (Lots of people FAR smarter and more knowledgeable than me have tried to quantify the effect of a given pitcher on how pitchers pitch, and the result is that it probably does (exist, that is) but that it’s pretty negligible.) So they stay with guys who they believe are good defensive catchers far longer than they should. If Mathis continues his execrable performances at the plate, Scioscia will be forced to give Conger the bulk of the starts. Probably the worst possible outcome for Angels fans would be for Mathis to “get hot” or go on a crazy unsustainable BABIP-fueled streak. That would probably allow Scioscia to continue to platoon Mathis and Conger for the bulk of the season. Best possible case? Probably for Mathis to go to the DL with a pulled suck muscle and let the kid handle the bulk of the catching from here on out. Conger has already posted .5 WAR in just 20 games (compared to Mathis’ -0.2 WAR), so, given enough playing time it’s reasonable to believe that Conger could rack up ~2.5 WAR, whereas Mathis’ career high is 0.2 (2007). In an AL West race that promises to stay tight throughout the season, the difference between Mathis and Conger could make all the difference.  ______________________________________________________________ Got questions? Comments? Wanna slap-fight about advanced stats? Do it in the comments!

All you need to know: Hank Conger: good. Jeff Mathis: poor. (graph from Fangraphs)

Friends Don’t Let Catchers Manage Catchers


Hank Conger is a damn fine baseball player. So far in 2011, based on 73 plate appearances, he’s the 10th-best catcher in the big leagues by wOBA (that’s weighted on-base average, an awesomely handy all-inclusive hitting stat that scales to batting average). Conger is 23 and has played in a total of 33 big league games. I think it’s safe to assume that he’ll move up that list as he adjusts to major league pitching and the rigors of the game at the highest level. (Baseball players typically peak around age 29 or 30, although that number might be a bit lower for catchers, just because of the physical demands of the position.)

His teammate Jeff Mathis is 28, so we should be expecting him to be at or approaching the peak of his career. Mathis has had almost the same amount of plate appearances – 75 – and is dead last among all catchers in major league baseball at a paltry .217 wOBA. Looking at players with a minimum of 70 PA this year, Mathis is the sixth-worst hitter in all of baseball. This doesn’t appear to be an outlier – his BABIP is at .250, which is in line with his career numbers, and the .217 is probably in the neighborhood of his true talent level (he posted a .223 wOBA last year in 218 PA).

Yet, somehow, Mike Scioscia insists on giving him as many starts as Conger, who could be a star for years to come. Why in the wide, wide world of sports would he do that?

My hunch is that former-catcher managers (of which Scioscia is one, and San Franciso’s Bruce Bochy is another) believe catchers have far more effect on the outcome of the game than they actually do. Yes, the way a catcher calls a game, frames the ball, and handles the pitcher all have an effect on the game, but it’s pretty minimal. (Lots of people FAR smarter and more knowledgeable than me have tried to quantify the effect of a given pitcher on how pitchers pitch, and the result is that it probably does (exist, that is) but that it’s pretty negligible.) So they stay with guys who they believe are good defensive catchers far longer than they should.

If Mathis continues his execrable performances at the plate, Scioscia will be forced to give Conger the bulk of the starts. Probably the worst possible outcome for Angels fans would be for Mathis to “get hot” or go on a crazy unsustainable BABIP-fueled streak. That would probably allow Scioscia to continue to platoon Mathis and Conger for the bulk of the season.

Best possible case? Probably for Mathis to go to the DL with a pulled suck muscle and let the kid handle the bulk of the catching from here on out. Conger has already posted .5 WAR in just 20 games (compared to Mathis’ -0.2 WAR), so, given enough playing time it’s reasonable to believe that Conger could rack up ~2.5 WAR, whereas Mathis’ career high is 0.2 (2007).

In an AL West race that promises to stay tight throughout the season, the difference between Mathis and Conger could make all the difference. 

______________________________________________________________

Got questions? Comments? Wanna slap-fight about advanced stats? Do it in the comments!

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You Keep On Using That Word

“I think he (Ervin Santana) has pitched much better than some of his internal numbers are indicating,” manager Mike Scioscia said. -ESPN

[Emphasis, mine.]

Hmm. So…

Internal Numbers:

  • Wins (1)
  • Losses (4)
  • ERA (4.81)
  • Body Language (40, below average)
  • Chinstrap Beard (20, just stop it)

I think?

If those numbers are “internal” and are indicating poor performance, then numbers indicating the opposite must be…

External Numbers: 

  • xFIP (3.52)
  • BABIP (.312)
  • K/9 (8.32, up from 6.83 in ‘10)
  • BB/9 (2.59, down from the two years prior)
  • HR/FB (9.5%, or roughly league average)

Right? It’s what’s on the outside that counts? Even if what’s on the outside is kind of more of what’s actually on the inside (or behind the conventional statistics.) Either way, Ervin Santana is not as bad as a glance at the stats next to his name in the pitching matchups in your local paper would lead you to believe.

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